Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros dismantled the St. Louis Cardinals 14-0 at Busch Stadium on June 29, 2023, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win falling from 41 percent before first pitch to zero percent by game's end. Houston's offense erupted for six runs in the second inning to effectively end the contest before the game reached its midpoint, and the Astros added three more in the sixth and four in the ninth to finish with 18 hits against a Cardinals staff that never found its footing. St. Louis managed just four hits across nine innings and did not threaten at any meaningful point in the game.

The second inning was where the game was decided, and the DiamondIQ model captured that decisive shift through the win-probability swings on both sides. Jordan Walker's flyout to end the Cardinals' half of the second carried a 9.1 percent negative swing, reflecting how close St. Louis came to keeping the deficit manageable before Houston pulled further away. In the top half, Corey Julks drew a strikeout that registered a positive 8.1 percent swing as Houston's rally continued against Steven Matz, and José Abreu followed with a double off Adam Wainwright worth 7.1 percent, while Kyle Tucker added a single worth 6.4 percent and Jose Altuve contributed a 4.2 percent swing with his own single against Wainwright.

Among individual performers, J.P. France led all players with a 15.1 percent win-probability added on the mound, anchoring a shutout effort for Houston's pitching staff. On the offensive side, Corey Julks finished with the highest batting WPA at plus-10.2 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Kyle Tucker posted a plus-7.5 percent WPA and led position players with a RE24 of plus-3.8, reflecting his run-environment impact throughout the game. José Abreu rounded out the top offensive contributors with a plus-6.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4.