Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-5 at Wrigley Field on June 28, 2023, handing Chicago a loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win fell from 48 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. The game's decisive stretch came in the top of the second inning, when the Phillies erupted for five runs against Drew Smyly in a sequence that effectively decided the outcome. Nick Castellanos delivered the inning's most impactful blow, a home run that shifted win probability by plus 9.8 percent in Philadelphia's favor, while Bryce Harper's flyout still contributed a positive swing of plus 8.8 percent within the same chaotic frame, reflecting how thoroughly the Phillies had loaded the bases and forced Smyly into damaging counts. Edmundo Sosa added his own home run in the inning for another plus 8.5 percent swing, turning what had been a coin-flip game into a commanding advantage before Chicago had managed a single run.

Aaron Nola absorbed some adversity but managed the Cubs' response well enough to factor positively in the pitching ledger, finishing with a plus 5.1 percent WPA contribution despite allowing Nico Hoerner a fifth-inning walk that represented the single largest positive Cubs play of the game at plus 7.7 percent. Yan Gomes grounded out in the bottom of the second in what became the game's most consequential negative swing, a minus 10.8 percent shift that extinguished Chicago's best early opportunity to cut into the deficit. Matt Strahm led all pitchers with a plus 7.7 percent WPA out of the bullpen, helping Philadelphia hold the Cubs at bay through the middle innings. Castellanos finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 14.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.4, while Harper contributed plus 11.5 percent. Christopher Morel was Chicago's lone bright spot at plus 10.4 percent WPA, though his efforts came in a losing effort as the Phillies collected 11 hits without committing an error.