Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handed the Seattle Mariners a 4-1 defeat at T-Mobile Park on June 28, 2023, a result that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 62 percent pre-game win probability for the home side. Washington struck early and decisively, plating three runs in the first inning and adding one more in the sixth, while Seattle managed its lone run in the bottom of the eighth against a Nationals staff that otherwise kept the Mariners largely silent across nine innings.

The game's defining swings came early, and they were shaped as much by Seattle's inability to respond as by Washington's offense. Patrick Corbin retired Ty France on a strikeout in the bottom of the first to generate a 10.0 percent negative win-probability swing for the Mariners, then followed it in the second by getting Dylan Moore to pop out for an even larger 12.7 percent swing against Seattle. On the offensive side, Luis García Jr. grounded out in the top of the second in a spot that nonetheless added 7.9 percent to Washington's win probability, and Hunter Harvey closed the door in the ninth when Cal Raleigh struck out for a 6.3 percent final swing in the Nationals' favor.

Patrick Corbin was the evening's dominant individual, accumulating 47.9 percent in total win-probability added, a figure that reflected his sustained command against a Seattle lineup the DiamondIQ model had favored to win outright. Tom Murphy led Washington's position players with a 9.9 percent WPA contribution and a +1.1 RE24, while Corey Dickerson and Luis García Jr. each added roughly 6.7 to 6.8 percent in win-probability value despite finishing with negative run-expectancy figures on the night.