Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Boston Red Sox a 6-2 defeat at Fenway Park on June 28, 2023, handing Boston their loss in front of the home crowd. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Red Sox a 45 percent chance of winning before first pitch, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out. Miami's offense was largely held in check through the first five innings before breaking the game open in the sixth, and the Marlins never relinquished the lead they built.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth inning, when Jean Segura delivered a single off Josh Winckowski that carried a win-probability swing of plus 30.5 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That hit served as the catalyst for a three-run frame that turned a close contest into a comfortable margin. Boston's best response came in the bottom of the fourth, when Rafael Devers connected on a home run off Braxton Garrett for a plus 12.3 percent swing, briefly tilting momentum toward the home side. However, Boston could not sustain that energy, as a Verdugo groundout in the third had already cost the Red Sox 5.9 percent in win probability on a missed opportunity. Jazz Chisholm Jr. added a home run off Chris Murphy in the eighth to extend the lead, though he had also been responsible for a costly strikeout in the sixth that trimmed 6.2 percent from Miami's probability at a critical moment.

Among individual performers, Segura finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 26.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Garrett Cooper contributed plus 8.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1 in support. On the mound, Braxton Garrett led all pitchers with a plus 10.8 percent WPA despite surrendering the Devers home run, with Nick Pivetta close behind at plus 10.7 percent, collectively limiting Boston's offense to two runs on eight hits.