Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-7 at Busch Stadium on June 28, 2023, erasing a four-run first-inning deficit to claim the road victory. St. Louis jumped out early, scoring four runs in the bottom of the first and adding single runs in the second and fourth innings to build a 6-3 lead through five frames. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win sat well below even money at the outset, and the Cardinals held a commanding position deep into the game before the Astros mounted their response.
The turning point arrived in the eighth inning, where Houston produced a five-run explosion that swung the game decisively and permanently. Jose Altuve delivered the biggest blow of the night, a home run off Giovanny Gallegos that shifted win probability by +33.9 percentage points, the single largest swing of the contest. Jose Abreu followed with another home run, also off Gallegos, adding a further +25.6 percentage points to Houston's probability. Those two swings alone rewrote the outcome. Earlier, in the sixth inning, Martin Maldonado's double off Miles Mikolas had moved the needle by +16.2 percentage points as Houston began to chip away, though Kyle Tucker's strikeout against Andre Pallante in that same frame partially offset the damage at -11.5 percentage points. Brendan Donovan's home run off Shawn Dubin in the bottom of the sixth, worth +12.8 percentage points, briefly steadied St. Louis, but it proved insufficient.
Altuve finished as the game's top performer by WPA at +35.6 percent with a RE24 of +3.0, while Abreu contributed +23.2 percent and a RE24 of +1.6. Donovan was the Cardinals' most impactful bat at +12.9 percent and a RE24 of +1.3, though his efforts could not overcome the eighth-inning collapse. On the mound, Chris Stratton led Houston's relievers with a WPA of +7.2 percent, followed by Bryan Abreu at +5.2 percent. Miles Mikolas paced the Cardinals' pitching staff at +4.0 percent despite surrendering the decisive Maldonado double. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0 percent for St. Louis, a reflection of how thoroughly Houston had dismantled the Cardinals' early advantage.