MLB Recap · June 27, 2023

Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

MIA10
Final
BOS1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIA30021004010190
BOS100000000190

The Story

The Miami Marlins routed the Boston Red Sox 10-1 at Fenway Park on June 27, 2023, producing one of the more lopsided results of the season. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving Boston a 46% chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to 0%, reflecting just how thoroughly Miami controlled the contest from the opening inning. The Marlins posted three runs in the first, added two more in the fourth, one in the fifth, and put the game entirely out of reach with a four-run eighth, finishing with 19 hits against a Boston staff that had no answers.

The decisive turning point came in the fourth inning, where the Marlins inflicted the most significant win-probability damage of the night against Garrett Whitlock. Jorge Soler's double in that frame shifted win probability by 10.8 percentage points in Miami's favor, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. followed with a single worth another 7.4 points, effectively strangling any remaining Boston hope of a comeback. Even earlier, a Jesús Sánchez groundout in the first inning generated 4.8 points of win-probability value, a sign of how the Marlins were manufacturing pressure from the jump. On the Boston side, the model's biggest negative swings came via a Connor Wong forceout in the second inning, which cost the Red Sox 5.9 points, and a David Hamilton strikeout in the fifth that subtracted another 5.1 points, both off Sandy Alcantara.

Sandy Alcantara was the game's dominant individual force, accumulating 27.3 percentage points of win-probability added on the mound and holding Boston's offense largely in check throughout his outing. Among Miami's position players, Soler led with a final WPA of plus-12.6 and a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Chisholm closed at plus-8.8 WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.0, indicating he was particularly valuable in high-leverage run-environment situations. Joey Wendle contributed a quieter but meaningful plus-3.5 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. The combination of Alcantara's dominance on the mound and the Soler-Chisholm tandem at the plate made this a game Boston had little chance of influencing once the first inning concluded.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIA bats firstFinalBOS win %MIA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 46.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jorge Soler Double
Top 4th · off Garrett Whitlock
+10.8%
Top 4th · off Garrett Whitlock
+7.4%
Connor Wong Forceout
Bot 2nd · off Sandy Alcantara
-5.9%
David Hamilton Strikeout
Bot 5th · off Sandy Alcantara
-5.1%
Jesús Sánchez Groundout
Top 1st · off Garrett Whitlock
+4.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Jorge Soler+12.6%+0.7 RE24
Jazz Chisholm Jr.+8.8%+3.0 RE24
Joey Wendle+3.5%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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