MLB Recap · June 27, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

CLE2
Final
KC1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE000000002272
KC000000010121

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians escaped Kauffman Stadium with a 2-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals on June 27, 2023, rallying from a scoreless tie to score twice in the ninth inning and strand Kansas City's eighth-inning run as the decisive difference. The DiamondIQ model had entered the day giving the Royals a 32 percent chance of winning at home, and that number held steady through eight innings of shutout baseball before collapsing entirely by the final out.

The pivotal moment of the game belonged to Will Brennan, whose two-out double off Scott Barlow in the top of the ninth swung win probability by 55.8 percentage points, the single largest play of the contest. That hit broke open what had been a deadlocked pitching duel and proved to be the decisive blow, with Andrés Giménez's subsequent walk off Barlow adding another 10.6 points of swing and extending the Guardians' advantage heading to the bottom half. Kansas City had briefly grabbed momentum in the eighth when Edward Olivares doubled off Trevor Stephan to add 10.7 points and Nicky Lopez followed with a fielder's choice that shifted win probability another 15.1 points, pushing the Royals to their lone run. But Emmanuel Clase retired the Royals in order in the ninth, with Maikel Garcia's groundout to end the game actually registering a 27.0-point swing in Cleveland's favor by closing the door on any Kansas City rally.

Brennan finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-63.2 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, while Brady Singer led all pitchers at plus-38.2 percent WPA despite pitching for the losing side, a reflection of how thoroughly he dominated the Guardians through his outing. Gavin Williams contributed plus-28.4 percent WPA for Cleveland, and Aroldis Chapman added plus-10.6 percent WPA in support. The Guardians finished with seven hits to Kansas City's two, overcoming their own two errors to claim the road win in a game the DiamondIQ model had considered unlikely for Cleveland entering first pitch.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalKC win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 32.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Will Brennan Double
Top 9th · off Scott Barlow
+55.8%
Maikel Garcia Groundout
Bot 9th · off Emmanuel Clase
+27.0%
Nicky Lopez Fielders Choice
Bot 8th · off Trevor Stephan
+15.1%
Edward Olivares Double
Bot 8th · off Trevor Stephan
+10.7%
Top 9th · off Scott Barlow
+10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Will Brennan+63.2%+1.7 RE24
Maikel Garcia+20.8%-0.8 RE24
Nicky Lopez+16.5%+1.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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