Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Kansas City Royals 3-1 on June 25, 2023, at Tropicana Field, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an 86% pre-game home win probability, which climbed to 100% by the final out. The Rays broke through first in the bottom of the third when Jose Siri homered off Daniel Lynch IV, a swing that shifted win probability by 10.6 percentage points. Kansas City answered in the top of the fourth when Maikel Garcia singled off Tyler Glasnow, a hit worth 10.3 percentage points of win probability and the Royals' most impactful moment of the afternoon. Tampa Bay put the game away in the seventh inning with Harold Ramírez delivering a sacrifice fly off Taylor Clarke that added 17.6 percentage points, the single largest win-probability swing of the contest.
Lynch IV was paradoxically the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus-35.6% despite allowing the Siri home run, as his overall body of work kept the Royals from doing any meaningful damage beyond Garcia's single. On the Tampa side, Colin Poche and Jason Adam each contributed to the bullpen effort, adding 8.3% and 8.1% in win probability respectively. Among hitters, Ramírez led all batters at plus-16.4% WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Yandy Díaz posted the game's highest RE24 at plus-1.6 to go with a plus-15.9% WPA, underscoring his consistent presence in the Rays lineup throughout the evening. Kansas City finished with just four hits and committed one error, never seriously threatening Glasnow and the Tampa bullpen beyond a brief fourth-inning window.