Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals came into Petco Park as pregame underdogs and left with an 8-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on June 25, 2023, flipping the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 62 percent home win probability all the way to zero by the final out. Washington struck first in the opening inning and largely controlled the flow, but the game remained competitive through five before the Nationals pulled away with a decisive two-run sixth and a five-run seventh that effectively ended the contest.

The swing plays told the story of how San Diego squandered opportunities while Washington capitalized on theirs. In the bottom of the fifth, Fernando Tatis Jr. singled off MacKenzie Gore for a plus-8.9 percent win-probability swing that briefly gave the Padres life, but Gary Sánchez's strikeout to close the bottom of the sixth off Joe La Sorsa wiped out 12.1 percent of San Diego's win probability in a single at-bat, the single largest swing of the game. On the other side, Stone Garrett's sacrifice fly double play in the top of the sixth added 8.8 percent to Washington's chances, and Lane Thomas followed in the seventh with a single off Tim Hill worth plus-10.7 percent, helping to blow the game open.

MacKenzie Gore was the standout performer on either roster, contributing plus-21.1 percent win probability to lead all pitchers, while Joe La Sorsa added 12.1 percent in relief. Offensively, Jeimer Candelario paced Washington with a plus-11.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.6, making him the most impactful bat in the game. Thomas finished with a plus-6.5 percent WPA and Garrett added plus-8.8 percent, giving the Nationals three contributors who each meaningfully shaped the outcome.