Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-2 at Oracle Park on June 25, 2023, handing San Francisco a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in stark terms — a game that opened with the Giants holding a 51% pre-game win probability and ended with that figure at 0%. Arizona scored in the first two innings to build an early cushion, absorbed a Giants run in the sixth, then put the game away with a two-run eighth that erased any remaining doubt. The Diamondbacks finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, while San Francisco managed six hits and similarly played clean in the field.
The decisive sequence arrived in the top of the eighth inning, when Ketel Marte connected on a home run off Tristan Beck that swung win probability by 21.2 percentage points in Arizona's favor, the single largest leverage moment of the game. The Giants responded briefly in the bottom half, as J.D. Davis singled off Scott McGough to shift probability 9.0 points toward San Francisco, and Patrick Bailey followed with a single that moved the needle another 12.3 points in the Giants' direction, briefly tightening the contest. Arizona's bullpen ultimately held, and the Diamondbacks added an insurance run in the ninth to close out the final margin.
The standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting were largely split between the two clubs' offensive contributors and Arizona's starting pitcher. Ryne Nelson led all players with a WPA of plus-34.6%, anchoring the effort for Arizona on the mound. Offensively, J.D. Davis was the Giants' most impactful bat, posting a plus-19.4% WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, driven significantly by his sixth-inning single off Nelson that added 11.8 points of win probability. Ketel Marte's eighth-inning home run gave him a plus-18.8% WPA and a game-high plus-2.0 RE24, making him the most consequential offensive player on Arizona's side. Thairo Estrada added a plus-8.1% WPA contribution for San Francisco, though it was not enough to overcome the Diamondbacks' pitching and timely hitting.