Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 in ten innings on June 25, 2023, at Progressive Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening the game at a dead-even 50 percent home win probability before shifting entirely to Milwaukee by the final out. The Brewers built a 4-0 lead through four innings, scoring three in the third and one in the fourth, before Cleveland mounted a comeback with three runs in the sixth. Will Brennan's single off Corbin Burnes in that frame, worth plus 19.7 percent in win probability, kept the Guardians alive, and Andrés Giménez followed with a triple, also off Burnes, adding another plus 16.8 percent swing that knotted the game at four heading into extra innings.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the tenth, where Owen Miller delivered the game-winning double off Trevor Stephan, the single most impactful play of the night at plus 33.7 percent win probability, scoring what proved to be the game's final run. A Brian Anderson strikeout against Stephan earlier in that inning also registered as a significant momentum shift at plus 21.1 percent, as it represented a failed Cleveland escape. Milwaukee closer Elvis Peguero then induced a pop out from Myles Straw to end the game, a result that added plus 27.0 percent to Milwaukee's closing probability.

Among the top individual performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Miller led all batters with a plus 31.7 percent WPA and a plus 0.6 RE24, while Giménez was the standout for Cleveland with plus 16.3 percent WPA and a plus 1.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Joel Payamps led Milwaukee's bullpen contributors at plus 19.2 percent WPA, with Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase and Sam Hentges posting positive figures of plus 13.5 and plus 10.6 percent respectively despite the loss.