Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves held off the Cincinnati Reds 7-6 on June 25, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving the Reds a 41% chance of winning before first pitch and dropping that figure to 0% by game's end. Atlanta seized control in the third inning, scoring three runs, but Cincinnati chipped back with runs in the fourth and seventh before the game's pivotal moment arrived in the top of the sixth. Matt Olson launched a home run off Ian Gibaut that swung win probability 33.4 points in Atlanta's favor, extending the Braves lead and representing the single most impactful play of the contest.
Cincinnati refused to go quietly, mounting a significant late rally that nearly erased Atlanta's advantage. Matt McLain was the engine of that comeback, homering off Nick Anderson in the seventh for an 11.9-point swing, then doubling off Joe Jiménez in the eighth for a 21.0-point swing as the Reds pushed two runs across in that frame to close within one. Jonathan India then singled off Raisel Iglesias in the ninth, adding 23.2 points to Cincinnati's win probability and keeping the tying run in motion, but Spencer Steer's flyout off Jiménez in the eighth had already cost the Reds 12.9 points at a critical juncture, effectively stalling the inning's full potential. Atlanta's bullpen, led by Randy Wynne, Kirby Yates, and A.J. Minter, combined for 18.7 percentage points of win probability above expectation to secure the final out.
By game's end, McLain finished as the top performer on either side with a cumulative WPA of plus-48.9 and an RE24 of plus-4.0, the most productive individual effort despite being on the losing team. Olson posted a WPA of plus-29.6 and an RE24 of plus-2.0 to pace the Atlanta offense, while India contributed plus-19.1 WPA in a narrow losing cause. The Braves finished with nine hits and no errors against Cincinnati's eleven hits and one error, the difference ultimately coming down to Atlanta's ability to convert at the most consequential moments while Cincinnati's late surge fell one run short.