Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros outlasted the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-5 in eleven innings at Dodger Stadium on June 25, 2023, in a game that swung dramatically in both directions before the Astros ultimately prevailed. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 56 percent pre-game win probability favoring Los Angeles, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to zero, reflecting how completely Houston seized control in the extra frames. The Astros built a 5-1 lead through four innings, scoring twice in the second and twice more in the fourth, before the game settled into a prolonged stalemate through the middle innings.
The decisive moment of the evening came in the bottom of the eighth, when Will Smith launched a home run off Rafael Montero that shifted win probability by 41.8 percentage points in Los Angeles's favor, pulling the Dodgers to within a run and setting the stage for what appeared to be a Dodger comeback. That single swing made Smith the top performer by WPA on the night at plus 63.8 percent, with a RE24 of plus 2.2. However, the Astros answered in the extra innings. Corey Julks singled off Brusdar Graterol in the top of the tenth for a 31.3-point probability swing, and then Alex Bregman delivered the go-ahead single off Yency Almonte in the top of the eleventh, a hit worth 36.5 percentage points by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Bregman finished at plus 28.1 percent WPA for the game, while Julks contributed plus 24.3 percent.
On the pitching side, Hunter Brown was the standout, posting plus 28.0 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Evan Phillips adding plus 13.5 percent in relief. Seth Martinez closed out the Dodgers in the bottom of the eleventh, aided critically when Miguel Vargas struck out for a 25.9-point negative swing against Los Angeles, before Will Smith grounded out to end the game, a play that registered plus 23.7 percent WPA from Houston's perspective. The Astros finished with ten hits and committed no errors, while Los Angeles managed only six hits and was charged with one error in the defeat.