Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants edged the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-6 at Oracle Park on June 24, 2023, in a back-and-forth contest that ultimately swung decisively in the Giants' favor across the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving San Francisco a 52 percent chance of winning at home, and by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100 percent, a journey shaped almost entirely by a handful of high-leverage swings in the fifth and sixth frames.
Arizona looked poised to seize control in the top of the fifth, when Christian Walker's double off Sean Manaea shifted win probability 15.2 percent in the Diamondbacks' direction, and a Corbin Carroll fielder's choice and Geraldo Perdomo single off Keaton Winn added another 12.9 and 10.1 percent respectively, fueling a four-run burst that gave Arizona a temporary edge. But San Francisco answered in the bottom half, with Joc Pederson's triple off Merrill Kelly generating the single largest swing of that sequence at plus-18.6 percent, and the Giants plated two runs to begin clawing back. The knockout blow came in the bottom of the sixth, when Luis Matos launched a home run off Kelly that swung win probability 20.3 percent toward San Francisco — the most consequential play of the game — and put the Giants ahead for good.
On the individual ledger, Pederson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-19.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Matos posted plus-17.6 percent WPA despite a modest RE24 of plus-0.7. Walker led Arizona's contributors at plus-14.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4, though his team's early momentum proved insufficient. The Giants' bullpen closed matters efficiently, with Tyler Rogers leading relievers at plus-15.3 percent WPA, Taylor Rogers adding plus-12.1 percent, and Camilo Doval contributing plus-6.3 percent as San Francisco secured the one-run victory. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Giants' middle-innings production, particularly Matos and Pederson, as the decisive factor in the outcome.