Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves held on to defeat the Cincinnati Reds 7-6 on June 24, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, completing a road victory that the DiamondIQ model had assigned just a 42 percent pre-game probability. Atlanta built leads across the middle innings and ultimately survived a late Cincinnati rally, with the final out of the game carrying the single largest win-probability swing of the night.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Jonathan India struck out against Raisel Iglesias, a play that shifted win probability by 31.6 percent and sealed the Atlanta win. Earlier, the Reds had threatened to take control when Matt McLain connected on a third-inning home run off Jared Shuster, a swing worth 18.2 percent in Cincinnati's favor. Atlanta answered in the fourth when Matt Olson launched a home run off Graham Ashcraft, a 17.5 percent swing that pushed the Braves back in front. The Reds countered again with Spencer Steer's home run off Shuster in the bottom of the fourth, adding another 14.2 percent toward Cincinnati. Marcell Ozuna effectively put the game away with a seventh-inning home run off Alex Young, a 10.7 percent swing that extended Atlanta's lead heading into the final frames.

By WPA, India led all position players at plus-23.5 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.9, his impact concentrated entirely in that critical final at-bat. Olson finished at plus-19.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, reflecting consistent run-production value throughout the game, while Ozuna added plus-13.7 percent. On the mound, Atlanta's bullpen carried the load, with Michael Tonkin posting the highest pitching WPA at plus-18.4 percent, followed by Fernando Cruz at plus-11.5 percent and Nick Anderson at plus-6.3 percent.