Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-1 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 23, 2023, holding on despite being out-hit 8-4 on the night. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Chicago entering with a 44% chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, a trajectory shaped largely by a handful of decisive moments in the middle innings.
The pivotal swing came in the top of the fourth, when Rafael Devers connected on a home run off Lucas Giolito, a play that shifted win probability by 17.5 percentage points in Boston's favor and stood as the single most impactful batting event of the game. Chicago had briefly drawn even in the third on an Andrew Benintendi double off Brayan Bello that added 9.1 percentage points to the White Sox's outlook, but Andrew Vaughn grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fourth, erasing 9.4 percentage points from Chicago's win probability and effectively neutralizing any momentum from that Benintendi knock. The White Sox never found a way back, as Gavin Sheets grounded out in the eighth off Chris Martin, costing Chicago another 9.7 percentage points, and Yasmani Grandal's groundout against Kenley Jansen to end the ninth removed the final 14.4 percentage points from Chicago's chances.
On the performance ledger, Devers finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 11.2%, with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Grandal added plus 9.0% WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.4. Benintendi contributed plus 7.3% WPA and plus 0.6 RE24 in a losing effort. On the mound, Brayan Bello was the story for Boston, posting plus 20.5% WPA to lead all pitchers, with Chris Martin adding plus 13.3% WPA in support, the two of them forming the backbone of a pitching performance that contained a Chicago lineup that generated eight hits but only one run.