MLB Recap · June 23, 2023

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

BOS3
Final
CWS1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS001200000342
CWS001000000182

The Story

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-1 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 23, 2023, holding on despite being out-hit 8-4 on the night. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Chicago entering with a 44% chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, a trajectory shaped largely by a handful of decisive moments in the middle innings.

The pivotal swing came in the top of the fourth, when Rafael Devers connected on a home run off Lucas Giolito, a play that shifted win probability by 17.5 percentage points in Boston's favor and stood as the single most impactful batting event of the game. Chicago had briefly drawn even in the third on an Andrew Benintendi double off Brayan Bello that added 9.1 percentage points to the White Sox's outlook, but Andrew Vaughn grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fourth, erasing 9.4 percentage points from Chicago's win probability and effectively neutralizing any momentum from that Benintendi knock. The White Sox never found a way back, as Gavin Sheets grounded out in the eighth off Chris Martin, costing Chicago another 9.7 percentage points, and Yasmani Grandal's groundout against Kenley Jansen to end the ninth removed the final 14.4 percentage points from Chicago's chances.

On the performance ledger, Devers finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 11.2%, with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Grandal added plus 9.0% WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.4. Benintendi contributed plus 7.3% WPA and plus 0.6 RE24 in a losing effort. On the mound, Brayan Bello was the story for Boston, posting plus 20.5% WPA to lead all pitchers, with Chris Martin adding plus 13.3% WPA in support, the two of them forming the backbone of a pitching performance that contained a Chicago lineup that generated eight hits but only one run.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalCWS win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 43.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Rafael Devers Home Run
Top 4th · off Lucas Giolito
+17.5%
Yasmani Grandal Groundout
Bot 9th · off Kenley Jansen
+14.4%
Gavin Sheets Groundout
Bot 8th · off Chris Martin
-9.7%
Andrew Vaughn Grounded Into DP
Bot 4th · off Brayan Bello
-9.4%
Bot 3rd · off Brayan Bello
+9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Rafael Devers+11.2%+1.0 RE24
Yasmani Grandal+9.0%-0.4 RE24
Andrew Benintendi+7.3%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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