Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| LAD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Houston Astros 3-2 at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Dodgers win moving from a pre-game 56 percent probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Los Angeles collected nine hits against Houston's three, though the game was far closer in the moment than the final win probability suggests, with the Astros briefly threatening to seize control in the fourth inning before ultimately being turned away.
The fourth inning produced the two biggest positive plays of the game for Houston, as Kyle Tucker and Mauricio Dubón hit back-to-back home runs off Emmet Sheehan, adding 11.3 and 10.4 percentage points of win probability respectively to give the Astros a 2-1 lead at that point. However, the decisive moment swung sharply back toward Los Angeles in the top of the eighth, when Jose Altuve grounded into a double play off Michael Grove, a single play that cost Houston 11.6 percentage points of win probability and effectively ended their last meaningful threat. Grove was the most impactful pitcher on the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing plus-19.3 percent win probability, followed by Brusdar Graterol at plus-15.2 percent, who retired Dubón on a groundout in the ninth to help seal the game.
Among position players, James Outman led all batters with a plus-13.7 percent win probability contribution and a RE24 of plus-0.5, while Miguel Rojas added plus-6.5 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.6. Tucker was the top performer on the Houston side, finishing at plus-4.2 percent WPA despite the Astros' loss, his fourth-inning home run remaining one of the few moments where Houston genuinely threatened to take the game.