Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals completed a stunning road comeback to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 6-5 at Tropicana Field on June 22, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had assessed as an 86 percent pre-game home win probability for Tampa Bay and ultimately driving that figure to zero. The Rays built their lead through the early innings, scoring twice in the first and adding three more in the seventh on a Francisco Mejía home run off Taylor Clarke that shifted win probability 17.3 points in Tampa Bay's favor. Kansas City had answered with two runs in the third and one in the seventh, but still faced a significant deficit heading into the final frames before staging the decisive rally.
The eighth and ninth innings belonged entirely to the Royals. Drew Waters delivered a single off Jason Adam in the top of the eighth that swung win probability 18.9 points toward Kansas City, helping the club score twice to close the gap. The defining moment came in the top of the ninth when MJ Melendez singled off Pete Fairbanks, producing the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 33.0 points and driving in what proved to be the go-ahead run in a one-run Kansas City frame. Salvador Perez's strikeout against Fairbanks represented the inning's sharpest setback for the Royals at minus 18.8 points, but the lead held. In the bottom of the ninth, Isaac Paredes struck out against Scott Barlow to close the door, a moment worth plus 27.0 points from Kansas City's perspective.
Melendez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 42.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Waters posted plus 33.2 percent WPA and an identical RE24 of plus 1.9. Despite logging a positive WPA of plus 31.6, Paredes finished with a RE24 of minus 0.1, reflecting the run-context limitations of his contributions. On the mound, Austin Cox led Kansas City's relievers at plus 23.8 percent WPA, with Aroldis Chapman adding plus 10.9 and Kevin Kelly contributing plus 10.1 as the bullpen secured the improbable victory.