Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves blanked the Philadelphia Phillies through nine innings before erupting for five runs in the top of the tenth to complete a 5-1 extra-innings victory at Citizens Bank Park on June 22, 2023. Through nine scoreless frames, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had shifted from a pre-game 40 percent home win probability for Philadelphia to essentially no chance by the time the dust settled, reflecting just how completely Atlanta seized control in that decisive tenth inning against Phillies reliever Yunior Marte.

The defining sequence of the game unfolded almost entirely in the top of the tenth, with a field error on Austin Riley generating the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 28.0 percent. That miscue opened the floodgates, and the Braves continued to pile on. Michael Harris II followed with a single worth plus 15.1 percent, and Ronald Acuña Jr. added another single at plus 11.5 percent, with Orlando Arcia's groundout also producing a plus 16.4 percent swing as Atlanta's runners crossed the plate in a sequence Marte could not contain. On the Philadelphia side, J.T. Realmuto's flyout against Raisel Iglesias in the bottom of the ninth represented a plus 14.0 percent swing that preserved a scoreless tie and kept Atlanta's chances alive heading into extras.

Austin Riley finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 24.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Michael Harris II was close behind at plus 23.2 percent. On the pitching side, Aaron Nola led all pitchers with a plus 34.2 percent WPA contribution despite ultimately absorbing the loss in a tight game, and Braves starter Bryce Elder matched that effort with plus 32.3 percent, keeping Philadelphia off the board long enough for Atlanta's offense to finally deliver.