San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants defeated the San Diego Padres 4-2 at Oracle Park on June 21, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 63% pre-game home win probability to a decisive 100% by game's end. The contest was effectively settled in one swing of the fifth inning, when the Giants sent four runs across the plate against Yu Darvish to break a scoreless deadlock. The three biggest batting plays of the game all came in that frame. Joc Pederson's single off Darvish added 10.7% win probability, Blake Sabol followed with a single worth 9.9%, and Mike Yastrzemski added another single at 8.1%, collectively turning what had been a tight pitchers' duel into a commanding lead the Padres never seriously threatened. San Diego managed single runs in the seventh and eighth innings but could not generate anything further, finishing with eight hits and no errors against a Giants staff that held firm.
On the negative side for San Diego, Jake Cronenworth was at the center of two of the game's most damaging plays. His fourth-inning double play off Sean Hjelle cost the Padres 7.8% win probability, and he grounded into another double play in the sixth against Taylor Rogers, erasing another 7.2%. Those two sequences alone accounted for the bulk of San Diego's lost leverage. Manny Machado was San Diego's most impactful offensive contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus-13.9% and an RE24 of plus-1.6, accounting for a substantial portion of whatever offense the Padres managed in the later innings.
The pitching story belonged to Sean Hjelle, whose WPA of plus-17.7% made him the single most valuable performer on either side by that measure, a reflection of how cleanly he navigated Padres threats and kept the deficit from shrinking. Camilo Doval added plus-6.3% WPA in relief, and Taylor Rogers contributed plus-3.3%, ensuring the four-run fifth held as the final margin. Both teams finished with eight hits, but San Francisco's came in a concentrated burst that the Padres were never able to match.