New York Mets at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
| HOU | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 10 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the New York Mets 10-8 on June 21, 2023, at Minute Maid Park, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game favoring Houston at 62% and finishing at 100% as the Astros pulled away for the win. The game was a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair through the early innings, with the decisive damage concentrated in the third and fourth frames where Houston built a lead it would not relinquish.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the third, when Corey Julks delivered a single off Tylor Megill that shifted win probability by plus-19.9 percentage points, opening the door for Chas McCormick to follow with a home run off Dominic Leone worth plus-18.9 percentage points. That two-play burst in the third represented the single largest momentum swing of the game and effectively reoriented the contest in Houston's favor. Dominic Leone was victimized again in the bottom of the fourth, when Yainer Diaz connected for a home run worth plus-18.6 percentage points, extending the Astros' cushion. The Mets attempted to answer in the top of the sixth, when Pete Alonso hit a home run off Rafael Montero that moved New York's win probability by plus-15.2 points, but Houston's lead proved too substantial to overcome.
Corey Julks and Francisco Lindor each finished as the top batters by WPA at plus-20.7 percentage points apiece, though Lindor's plus-2.5 RE24 edged Julks for the better contextual run contribution. McCormick rounded out the top three at plus-16.6 percentage points. On the pitching side, Héctor Neris led Houston's relief corps with plus-8.5 percentage points of win probability added, with Bryan Abreu contributing plus-8.1 and Ryan Pressly adding plus-6.3 as the Astros' bullpen locked down the victory.