Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-3 at PNC Park on June 21, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 52 percent pre-game Pittsburgh win probability all the way down to zero by the final out. The Cubs built their advantage in distinct bursts, scoring three runs in the third inning, two in the sixth, two more in the eighth, and one in the seventh, while holding the Pirates to a meager two-hit output across nine innings.
The decisive moments were concentrated against Pittsburgh starter Rich Hill. Nico Hoerner's triple in the third inning swung win probability 9.5 percent in Chicago's favor, and Seiya Suzuki followed shortly after with a sacrifice fly that added another 8.9 percent. Those plays effectively wrested control from the Pirates before the game reached the midpoint. Ian Happ then delivered the single most impactful at-bat of the night in the sixth inning, a double off Hill that shifted win probability 15.7 percent toward the Cubs and put the outcome largely beyond reach. The only meaningful Pittsburgh response came in the second inning, when Joshua Palacios doubled off Kyle Hendricks to generate an 8.7 percent swing for the home side.
Among individual performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Happ led all batters with a WPA of plus-14.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.6, followed by Hoerner at plus-11.3 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, and Suzuki at plus-7.5 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. On the mound, Kyle Hendricks was the standout contributor, posting a WPA of plus-9.6 percent despite allowing the Palacios double, as he kept Pittsburgh from mounting any sustained threat through his innings of work.