St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-0 on June 21, 2023, at Nationals Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a near-even 51% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Washington's pitching staff held a Cardinals lineup that collected seven hits to zero runs across nine innings, and the game turned decisively on a handful of plays in the middle frames that steadily erased any realistic path to a St. Louis comeback.

The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when CJ Abrams connected on a home run off Miles Mikolas, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 13.4 points and gave Washington its first lead of the night. The Cardinals mounted their most credible threat in the top of the seventh, when Nolan Arenado drew a walk off Mason Thompson that added 8.6 points of win probability to St. Louis's side, briefly injecting tension into the frame. However, Nolan Gorman's strikeout against Thompson swung the needle 11.0 points back toward Washington, and Dylan Carlson grounded out against Kyle Finnegan for another 9.1-point shift, effectively ending the inning's promise. Paul Goldschmidt's pop out off Finnegan in the eighth, worth minus 8.9 points of win probability, closed the door on the Cardinals' final meaningful opportunity.

Trevor Williams was the most impactful individual performer of the night, finishing with a plus 23.0 WPA mark that anchored the entire Nationals effort, while Finnegan contributed plus 17.2 WPA out of the bullpen. Offensively, Abrams led all batters with a plus 16.1 WPA and plus 1.3 RE24, making him the clear engine of Washington's victory. Arenado, despite being on the losing side, registered plus 8.7 WPA and plus 0.3 RE24 as the one Cardinal who consistently created leverage for his club, though Washington's pitching ultimately rendered those moments inconsequential.