Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the Miami Marlins a 6-3 defeat at loanDepot park on June 21, 2023, erasing a pregame DiamondIQ model estimate that gave Miami a 56 percent chance of winning at home. The game turned decisively in the second inning, when the Blue Jays plated five runs against Sandy Alcantara, a sequence that included a groundout by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that shifted win probability 10.7 percent in Toronto's favor as the rally unfolded. Miami's Jonathan Davis contributed to the damage with a flyout in the bottom half of that same inning that swung win probability another 12.7 percent against the Marlins, and by the time the Blue Jays had finished the frame, they held a lead they would not relinquish. Luis Arraez's double-play grounder off Erik Swanson in the seventh, which carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night at negative 12.8 percent for Miami, effectively ended any realistic path to a comeback for the home side.

Matt Chapman was the Blue Jays' standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a game-high plus 12.5 percent WPA and adding a solo home run off Steven Okert in the eighth that moved Toronto's win probability another 9.4 percent in their direction. Guerrero Jr. contributed plus 9.5 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of 0.6, reflecting his role in driving the second-inning burst. On the pitching side, Erik Swanson was the most impactful arm of the night, posting plus 19.0 percent WPA in relief, with Trevor Richards providing additional support at plus 5.2 percent. Jorge Soler's double-play grounder off Kevin Gausman in the fifth, a minus 9.2 percent swing, further illustrated how thoroughly Gausman and the Toronto bullpen neutralized Miami's offense across nine innings.