Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox handed the Minnesota Twins a decisive 10-4 defeat at Target Field on June 20, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Minnesota win falling from 50 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by game's end. Boston's offense was silent through the first three innings before breaking through in the fourth, when Adam Duvall and Christian Arroyo hit back-to-back home runs off Bailey Ober, swinging win probability by 11.6 and 11.2 percentage points respectively. Those two blows gave Boston an early lead it would never relinquish, and a Connor Wong single off Ober in the sixth added another 9.6 percentage points to Boston's advantage. The Red Sox finished with 15 hits and committed no errors, while Minnesota was held without a run until the eighth inning.
The Twins briefly threatened in the fifth, when Ryan Jeffers doubled off Kutter Crawford to swing win probability 7.9 points in Minnesota's favor, but Edouard Julien followed with a strikeout that erased 7.4 points of that gain and effectively ended the threat. Crawford was the model's standout performer of the night, accumulating a game-high plus-22.5 percent WPA by limiting the Twins' offense when it mattered most. Boston then put the game away with a five-run seventh inning before adding two more in the eighth, finishing the contest with a 10-run margin on the strength of their 15-hit attack.
Christian Arroyo led all position players with plus-14.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.5, reflecting the sustained run-environment impact of his contributions throughout the lineup. Ryan Jeffers paced the Twins with plus-12.2 percent WPA despite Minnesota's loss, while Connor Wong contributed plus-9.4 percent WPA for Boston. Brennan Bernardino added plus-6.0 percent WPA out of the bullpen, while Corey Kluber finished at exactly zero. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Crawford's performance as the decisive factor, given that his suppression of Minnesota's fifth-inning rally proved to be the last realistic moment the Twins had to alter the game's outcome.