Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-5 on June 20, 2023, at American Family Field, rallying from an early deficit to pull away in the seventh inning. Arizona struck first in the top of the second when Ketel Marte hit a home run off Colin Rea, a swing that shifted win probability 11.5 points in the Diamondbacks' favor. The D-backs extended their lead to 4-1 through five innings, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win sat well below even as late as the middle frames. A Jake McCarthy single off Hoby Milner in the top of the sixth added another 12.1 percentage points for Arizona and pushed the lead to 5-3, but it proved to be the last moment the visitors held a meaningful advantage.

Milwaukee's comeback hinged on two separate swings. In the bottom of the fourth, Jesse Winker connected on a home run off Ryne Nelson, a blow worth plus 17.0 percentage points in win probability and the single most impactful play of the game. Then in the bottom of the seventh, William Contreras delivered a double off Kyle Nelson that shifted the win probability another 16.2 points toward Milwaukee, followed closely by a Joey Wiemer single off Austin Adams worth 13.9 points. That seventh-inning surge produced four runs and gave the Brewers a lead they would not relinquish, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win from 46 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end.

Winker finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 12.4 with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Contreras contributed plus 12.1 WPA and Owen Miller added plus 9.4 WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 in support. On the mound, Joel Payamps led Milwaukee's relievers with plus 8.1 WPA, followed by Devin Williams at plus 6.3. Arizona finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, but the bullpen could not hold the lead once Milwaukee's offense found its footing in the middle innings.