Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians walked off the Oakland Athletics 3-2 in ten innings on June 20, 2023, at Progressive Field, a result the DiamondIQ model had heavily anticipated with a pre-game home win probability of 76 percent that climbed to a certainty of 100 percent by the final out. Cleveland's offense was largely bottled up through the early frames, but a José Ramírez double in the bottom of the seventh off Sam Moll proved to be the game's most consequential swing in regulation, shifting win probability by 19.9 percent and pulling the Guardians level in what had been a tightly contested pitching duel. Oakland had briefly threatened to steal the game in the top of the seventh when Tony Kemp connected on a home run off Aaron Civale worth 14.5 percent in win probability added, though Ryan Noda's double play in the fifth had already cost the Athletics 15.4 percent in win probability at a moment when they needed baserunners.

The game was ultimately settled in the bottom of the tenth, where Tyler Freeman's sacrifice bunt off Trevor May registered the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at plus 22.5 percent, advancing the automatic runner into scoring position and setting the stage for the walk-off. Ramírez led all position players with a WPA of plus 29.7 percent and an RE24 of plus 0.4, while Freeman posted a RE24 of plus 1.4 to go along with his plus 22.5 percent WPA contribution in the decisive frame. On the mound, Luis Medina was the most impactful arm of the evening at plus 25.1 percent WPA, with Emmanuel Clase adding plus 13.5 percent and Ken Waldichuk contributing plus 8.7 percent for Oakland in a losing effort. Cleveland's final line of 3 runs on 10 hits against Oakland's 2 runs on 6 hits reflected a game that was closer than the Guardians' overall dominance of the win-probability chart might suggest.