Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 2 |
| HOU | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds erased a two-run deficit in extra innings to defeat the Houston Astros 9-7 on June 18, 2023, at Minute Maid Park, completing a comeback that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win from 57 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. The Reds trailed through much of the contest, with Houston building momentum off a strong pitching performance through much of the middle frames, but Cincinnati kept chipping away with a three-run sixth inning and a solo shot in the eighth before forcing extras.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where TJ Friedl delivered the most consequential play of the game, a single off Seth Martinez that swung win probability by 36.5 percent in Cincinnati's favor. Friedl finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-37.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.3. Elly De La Cruz added a single in that same inning off Martinez, contributing a 19.7 percent swing that helped Cincinnati plate three runs in the frame for a 9-6 lead. Earlier in the game, Spencer Steer's sixth-inning home run off Ronel Blanco had been the turning point that brought the Reds back into contention, swinging win probability 25.3 percent and finishing with a WPA of plus-26.8 and a RE24 of plus-1.6. Jonathan India's solo homer off Bryan Abreu in the eighth added a further 20.3 percent swing to keep Cincinnati ahead.
Houston mounted a threat in the bottom of the ninth when Yainer Diaz singled off Ian Gibaut to produce an 18.4 percent win-probability swing, and Diaz ultimately finished as the game's second-highest WPA performer among batters at plus-27.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, reflecting how close the Astros came to forcing the game further. On the mound, Lucas Sims led all pitchers with a plus-23.3 percent WPA contribution for Cincinnati, followed by Daniel Duarte at plus-15.3 percent and Phil Maton at plus-9.9 percent, a collective bullpen effort that proved just enough to preserve the Reds' two-run cushion entering the final half-inning and secure the road victory.