Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 4-2 at Nationals Park on June 18, 2023, handing Washington a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate suggested was likely from the start, with pre-game home win probability sitting at just 36 percent before falling to zero by the final out. Miami built its lead across the second through fourth innings, scoring once in the second, once more in the third, and twice in the fourth, then held Washington scoreless through the game's final six frames. The Nationals managed eight hits but were undone by an error and a critical baserunning miscue that erased their best late opportunity.
The game's most impactful sequence came in the bottom of the third, when Lane Thomas connected on a two-run home run off Jesús Luzardo, a swing that shifted Washington's win probability upward by 18.7 percent and briefly gave the Nationals life. Miami answered quickly, however, as Jorge Soler's single off Patrick Corbin in the top of the fourth added 12.9 percent to the Marlins' win probability and pushed the lead to 4-2, a margin that would prove insurmountable. Washington's final threat dissolved in the eighth inning when Joey Meneses grounded into a double play off Dylan Floro, a play that swung win probability 14.4 percent against the home side and effectively ended the contest. Keibert Ruiz's double off Andrew Nardi in the ninth added a flicker of hope at plus 10.9 percent, but Dominic Smith's pop out moments later closed the door at plus 11.6 percent for Miami.
Soler led all position players with a WPA of plus 14.0 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Jon Berti contributed plus 9.9 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 to complement Miami's 12-hit, zero-error afternoon. On the pitching side, Dylan Floro was the most valuable arm on the day at plus 13.3 percent WPA, with Cory Abbott adding plus 9.3 percent and Steven Okert contributing plus 8.8 percent as the Marlins bullpen preserved the two-run advantage through the game's final half-dozen innings.