Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Houston Astros a 10-3 defeat at Minute Maid Park on June 17, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 58 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston and running that figure all the way to zero. Cincinnati finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while Houston was held to 7 hits and was charged with 2 errors. The Reds scored in five of nine innings, capping the game with a four-run ninth that sealed the margin.

Will Benson was the central offensive force for Cincinnati, finishing as the top batter by win-probability added at plus-24.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.2. His triple off Brandon Bielak in the top of the fourth shifted win probability by plus-9.1 percent, and his single off Phil Maton in the top of the fifth added another plus-14.3 percent, the single largest swing of the entire game. For Houston, Jose Altuve provided the only sustained resistance, generating a plus-23.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.0 on the strength of two doubles off Hunter Greene, one in the third inning worth plus-9.1 percent and another in the fifth worth plus-8.0 percent. Jake Meyers had the most damaging negative swing for the Astros, with a flyout off Greene in the second inning registering minus-8.8 percent.

Hunter Greene was the pitching standout of the game, posting a plus-22.0 percent WPA for Cincinnati despite surrendering both Altuve doubles. His overall performance kept Houston's offense sufficiently in check to allow the Reds offense to build a lead that proved insurmountable. Buck Farmer added plus-5.2 percent WPA in relief, and Héctor Neris contributed plus-0.9 percent. Matt McLain rounded out the notable Cincinnati contributors on offense at plus-6.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6.