Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | 6 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-3 at Chase Field on June 17, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened as a 68 percent home-win probability and closed at 100 percent. Cleveland managed 10 hits but was unable to overcome a series of crushing swings in the middle and late innings that steadily eroded any chance of a comeback.
The decisive blows came in the fourth and eighth innings, both at the expense of Shane Bieber. Christian Walker opened the scoring with a home run in the bottom of the fourth that shifted win probability 18.6 percent in Arizona's favor, and the Guardians never truly recovered. Cleveland's best opportunity to claw back came in the top of the eighth, but Andrés Giménez grounded into a double play off Joe Mantiply, a sequence that swung win probability 14.9 percent against the Guardians. Arizona then closed the door emphatically in the bottom half of that inning, with Jake McCarthy launching a home run off Bieber that added 18.8 percent to Arizona's win probability, followed by a Corbin Carroll home run worth another 18.0 percent. Those three home runs off Bieber were the structural backbone of the Arizona win.
Among the top performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, McCarthy led all batters with a WPA of plus 15.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.8, while Carroll posted the highest RE24 of the trio at plus 1.4 alongside an 11.6 percent WPA contribution. Walker added plus 12.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3. On the pitching side, reliever Joe Mantiply was the standout, generating plus 16.5 percent WPA — the highest among all pitchers — with his work in the eighth inning directly extinguishing Cleveland's final realistic threat.