St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the New York Mets 5-3 at Citi Field on June 17, 2023, overcoming a DiamondIQ model pre-game home win probability of 62% in favor of the Mets to emerge with the road victory. The Cardinals struck early and decisively, plating three runs in the second inning to establish a lead they would not surrender. New York managed to chip away with two runs in the fifth but could not complete the comeback, and St. Louis added an insurance run in the ninth to seal the final margin.
The game's decisive turning points were largely defined by missed Mets opportunities. Mark Canha grounded into a double play in the bottom of the second against Adam Wainwright, a swing of minus-15.0 percent in win probability that short-circuited any New York counter to the Cardinals' early burst. Luis Guillorme's solo home run off Wainwright in the fifth was the most impactful offensive play of the night for New York, shifting win probability by plus-19.3 percent and giving the Mets brief life, but the deficit proved too steep. Daniel Vogelbach's strikeout against Giovanny Gallegos in the eighth, a swing of minus-16.5 percent, effectively ended New York's realistic chances of a rally, and Starling Marte's strikeout against Jordan Hicks in the ninth removed any remaining drama.
On the individual ledger, Guillorme led all batters with a WPA of plus-17.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6, his home run standing as the lone moment New York genuinely threatened to reframe the game. Dylan Carlson contributed a WPA of plus-8.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0 for St. Louis, providing steady offensive production. On the mound, Giovanny Gallegos was the Cardinals' most valuable arm, posting a WPA of plus-23.3 percent, with Wainwright adding plus-17.2 percent despite surrendering the Guillorme homer. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for New York, reflecting a game that was ultimately decided by St. Louis's early offense and its bullpen's ability to strand threats in the late innings.