New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the New York Yankees a decisive 15-5 defeat at Fenway Park on June 16, 2023, a game that was effectively decided in the early innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a near-even 48 percent home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily toward its final reading of 100 percent as Boston seized control through a six-run third inning and a two-run second. New York committed two errors against Boston's one, and the Yankees' 10 hits were never enough to offset a Red Sox offense that collected 17.

The pivotal sequence arrived in the bottom of the second, where Justin Turner delivered a home run off Domingo Germán that added 11.9 percent to Boston's win probability, the single largest swing of the game. Rafael Devers followed with a groundout that nonetheless added another 7.2 percent, as the Yankees' defensive miscues and pitching struggles kept the inning alive and productive. Turner returned to do further damage in the bottom of the third, connecting on another home run, this time off Matt Krook, for a 5.9 percent win-probability swing. On the other side of the ledger, Pablo Reyes grounded into a double play in the second that cost Boston 4.8 percent, and Kyle Higashioka's groundout in the top of the second was the Yankees' best moment of the evening at minus 4.7 percent for Boston.

Turner finished as the game's most impactful individual, posting a combined WPA of plus-18.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-5.3, numbers that reflect just how thoroughly his two-homer performance shaped the outcome. Rafael Devers contributed a plus-7.8 percent WPA, while Masataka Yoshida added plus-7.7 percent with an RE24 of plus-3.3. On the mound, Tanner Houck was Boston's most effective pitcher, generating plus-10.3 percent WPA as he kept New York's lineup largely in check. The model leans heavily on performances like Turner's to explain how a coin-flip pregame probability collapsed so completely in Boston's favor.