Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-2 at Wrigley Field on June 15, 2023, in a game that shifted decisively in Chicago's favor during the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the contest with nearly even odds, giving the Cubs a 49% pre-game home win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100% as Chicago's offense came alive against Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the bottom of the fifth inning, where the Cubs plated five runs and effectively ended any realistic Pittsburgh comeback. Ian Happ delivered the biggest single swing of the night, a double off Oviedo that added 14.9% to Chicago's win probability, and Cody Bellinger followed with a double of his own off reliever Jose E. Hernandez that pushed the needle another 12.6%. Happ had also been instrumental in the third inning, when his single off Oviedo generated a 9.5% win probability swing, and Christopher Morel had kept the pressure building in the fourth with a triple against Oviedo worth 8.5%. A Tucker Barnhart strikeout to end the fourth represented the lone significant reversal for the Cubs, costing them 7.7% in win probability.

Happ finished as the game's standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating a combined WPA of plus 26.6% alongside a RE24 of plus 1.9, reflecting his outsized contributions at multiple critical moments. Morel was nearly as impactful at plus 17.9% WPA and plus 1.7 RE24, while Nico Hoerner added plus 14.4% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24 to round out the Cubs' most productive offensive contributors. On the mound, Marcus Stroman led Chicago's pitching staff with a WPA of plus 3.2%, controlling Pittsburgh's lineup and setting the foundation for the Cubs' comfortable victory.