Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Kansas City Royals 7-4 at Kauffman Stadium on June 14, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 30 percent pre-game home win probability for Kansas City all the way to zero by the final out. Cincinnati's offense did the bulk of its damage in the fifth inning, when a five-run outburst against Royals starter Daniel Lynch IV effectively put the game out of reach. The Reds finished with seven runs on seven hits, though four errors in the field added some unnecessary drama to their afternoon. Kansas City managed 15 hits but could only convert four of those into runs.
The game's decisive sequence centered on the middle innings, where Lynch IV surrendered the three highest-impact plays of the contest. Matt McLain delivered the single most consequential blow, a home run in the top of the fifth that swung win probability by plus-20.1 percent in Cincinnati's favor. Stuart Fairchild added another home run in the same inning worth plus-11.8 percent, and Jonathan India's double in the fourth had already shifted the needle by plus-13.3 percent. Kansas City's best moment came in the bottom of the third, when Bobby Witt Jr. singled off Ben Lively for a plus-11.4 percent swing, briefly keeping the Royals within reach. Elly De La Cruz offset some of Cincinnati's fourth-inning momentum with a double play that cost the Reds 10.2 percent in win probability.
McLain finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-24.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.8, underscoring how central his contributions were to the outcome. India was close behind at plus-10.6 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Witt Jr. led Kansas City's offensive effort at plus-10.9 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Cincinnati's bullpen trio of Buck Farmer, Fernando Cruz, and Jose Cuas each contributed positively in win-probability terms, helping the Reds preserve the lead through the final innings despite the Royals' persistent hit production.