Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves held off the Detroit Tigers 6-5 at Comerica Park on June 13, 2023, completing a come-from-behind victory that the DiamondIQ model gave just a 33 percent chance to the home side before first pitch. Atlanta built its lead through early, incremental pressure, scoring in each of the first four innings, while Detroit's most explosive moment came in the bottom of the fourth when Jake Rogers launched a home run off Dylan Dodd that swung win probability by 22.4 percent in the Tigers' favor and briefly made it a competitive game. The Braves answered in the top of the sixth when Eddie Rosario hit a home run off Michael Lorenzen, a swing worth 13.7 percent in win probability that pushed Atlanta back into firm control and ultimately proved decisive.

Detroit mounted a late threat but could not deliver the critical blow. Zach McKinstry's groundout in the bottom of the eighth, coming off Joe Jiménez, swung win probability 12.9 percent against the Tigers, and Matt Olson's strikeout double play off Jason Foley in the seventh, costing Atlanta 9.3 percent in win probability, gave Detroit openings it could not convert. The game ended in the bottom of the ninth when A.J. Minter struck out Eric Haase, a result that swung 31.6 percent in Atlanta's favor and brought the DiamondIQ model's home win estimate from a precarious position all the way to zero.

Among the standout individual performances, Joe Jiménez led all pitchers with a 38.2 percent WPA contribution despite pitching for the losing side, and Collin McHugh added 23.8 percent WPA in Atlanta's bullpen effort. On the offensive side, Rosario finished as Atlanta's most impactful hitter at plus-19.2 percent WPA with a plus-1.5 RE24, while Rogers led Detroit's offense with a plus-11.3 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24. Haase's plus-31.6 percent WPA topped all batters, though his negative RE24 of minus-0.1 reflected a night that ultimately ended in the Tigers' defeat.