New York Yankees at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the New York Mets 7-6 at Citi Field on June 13, 2023, holding on through a tense final frame to complete the victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Mets a 43% pre-game win probability, and the home side built an early 6-1 lead through three innings before the game turned decisively in the top of the fourth. The Yankees sent up a massive frame against Max Scherzer, with Anthony Volpe's double carrying a win-probability swing of plus-13.4% and Jake Bauers following with a single worth plus-12.9%, part of a five-run inning that erased the deficit and reoriented the game entirely.

The Yankees' bullpen ultimately made that fourth-inning comeback stand. Clay Holmes was the central figure in preservation, generating the two most consequential outs of the night in the bottom of the eighth. Strikeouts of Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte carried combined win-probability swings of minus-43.7% against the Mets, effectively quelling what had been a threatening situation. Holmes finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-43.8%, with John Curtiss adding plus-14.0% and Dominic Leone contributing plus-10.9% in support.

The Mets made one final push in the bottom of the ninth, and Luis Guillorme's lineout off Michael King carried the largest single-play win-probability swing of the game at plus-31.6% for the batting team, reflecting just how close New York came to forcing extra innings. Guillorme finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-42.0% despite the ultimate outcome, with Jeff McNeil posting plus-16.7% and Volpe adding plus-11.7% for the Yankees. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for the Mets, confirming what the final score made official.