Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Boston Red Sox 7-6 in ten innings at Fenway Park on June 13, 2023, erasing a pre-game deficit in the DiamondIQ model's estimate that had Boston at a 60 percent home win probability before first pitch. Colorado broke through in the third inning, when Elias Díaz delivered a double off Kutter Crawford that swung win probability 23.7 percent in the Rockies' favor and staked them to a 3-0 lead. Boston chipped away with single runs in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, including a Rafael Devers home run off Chase Anderson in the bottom of the fourth that shifted win probability 14.7 percent toward the Red Sox and helped pull them within striking distance.

The decisive blow came in the top of the tenth inning, when Randal Grichuk laced a double off Justin Garza that swung win probability 43.0 percent toward Colorado and pushed the Rockies ahead by three. Boston answered immediately in the bottom half on another Devers home run, this one off Matt Carasiti, which moved the needle 15.7 percent back toward the Red Sox. The game ultimately ended on a Reese McGuire strikeout against Pierce Johnson, a sequence that carried a 27.0 percent win-probability swing in Colorado's favor and closed out the 7-6 victory.

Grichuk finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-38.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Devers led all Red Sox hitters at plus-27.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.5 despite being on the losing side. Nolan Jones contributed a plus-19.0 percent WPA for Colorado. On the mound, Justin Lawrence led all pitchers at plus-31.2 percent WPA, followed by Corey Kluber at plus-18.9 percent and Chris Martin at plus-13.5 percent, as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Boston's win probability collapsed from 60 percent at first pitch to zero by the final out.