MLB Recap · June 13, 2023

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

PIT3
Final
CHC11

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT110001000370
CHC30000143-11140

The Story

The Chicago Cubs pulled away from the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 13, 2023 at Wrigley Field, winning 11-3 in a game that swung decisively in Chicago's favor after a tense early exchange. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 46 percent home win probability, and while Pittsburgh briefly complicated matters in the early innings, the model's estimate climbed to 100 percent by game's end as the Cubs posted seven combined runs across the seventh and eighth innings to turn a close contest into a rout.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the sixth inning. Jack Suwinski's home run off Jameson Taillon was the single largest win-probability swing of the night, adding 13.6 percent to Pittsburgh's chances and briefly keeping the Pirates relevant. However, Taillon steadied following that blow, and on the Cubs' side of the same inning, Dansby Swanson delivered a single off Luis Ortiz that added 6.5 percent to Chicago's win probability and helped set the tone for the offensive outburst to come. The seventh inning was particularly damaging for Pittsburgh, as Ian Happ's hit by pitch off Yohan Ramírez shifted the win probability another 8.0 percent toward Chicago as the Cubs pushed across four runs in that frame and three more in the eighth.

Suwinski led all position players with a WPA of plus-18.1 and an RE24 of plus-2.6, though his efforts came on the losing side. On the winning side, Ian Happ posted a plus-14.0 WPA and a plus-3.7 RE24, the highest run-environment contribution of any player on the night, while Swanson added a plus-9.2 WPA in support. Among pitchers, Taillon's performance was pivotal, finishing with a plus-13.7 WPA despite surrendering the Suwinski home run, while Julian Merryweather contributed a plus-8.5 WPA out of the Cubs' bullpen to help close out Pittsburgh's final opportunities.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalCHC win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jack Suwinski Home Run
Top 6th · off Jameson Taillon
+13.6%
Ian Happ Hit By Pitch
Bot 7th · off Yohan Ramírez
+8.0%
Joshua Palacios Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Jameson Taillon
-7.5%
Nico Hoerner Grounded Into DP
Bot 5th · off Luis Ortiz
-7.0%
Dansby Swanson Single
Bot 6th · off Luis Ortiz
+6.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Jack Suwinski+18.1%+2.6 RE24
Ian Happ+14.0%+3.7 RE24
Dansby Swanson+9.2%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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