Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Miami Marlins 9-3 on June 13, 2023, at T-Mobile Park, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle win from 50% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the final out. Seattle built its lead methodically through three separate multi-run innings, and Miami's lone meaningful threat in the top of the sixth did little to alter the outcome's trajectory.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second inning, where the Mariners did the bulk of their damage against Marlins starter Edward Cabrera. Cal Raleigh's home run in that frame was the single most impactful play of the game, swinging win probability by 17.6 percentage points. A walk to Teoscar Hernandez added another 2.7 percentage points to Seattle's advantage, and J.P. Crawford's strikeout, viewed from the batting team's perspective, contributed a further 6.4 percentage points to the Mariners' growing control of the game. Mike Ford then extended Seattle's cushion with a home run off Cabrera in the bottom of the fourth, a swing worth 9.4 percentage points of win probability. The Mariners tacked on three more runs in the sixth and one in the eighth to reach the final margin of nine.

Raleigh finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-18.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.8, while Ford posted the game's best RE24 at plus-3.1 alongside a WPA of plus-9.9 percent. On the mound, George Kirby was Seattle's standout, contributing plus-15.7 percentage points of win probability. Jorge Soler's single off Kirby in the top of the sixth, worth 3.1 percentage points for Miami, represented the Marlins' most consequential moment, though it proved far too little against a Mariners offense that controlled the game from the second inning onward.