MLB Recap · June 12, 2023

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

TB3
Final
OAK4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TB000003000370
OAK00004000-460

The Story

The Oakland Athletics completed a stunning comeback against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 12, 2023, at the Oakland Coliseum, winning 4-3 in a game that looked entirely one-sided through the first four innings before unraveling dramatically in one pivotal frame. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving Oakland just a 16% chance of winning at home, a figure that reflected the pregame reality before finishing at 100% as the final out was recorded.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, where Oakland erupted for all four of its runs against Zach Eflin. Shea Langeliers provided the single biggest positive swing of the game for the Athletics in that inning, his double registering a win-probability gain of plus-18.8% according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and Langeliers finished the game as one of Oakland's top contributors with a cumulative WPA of plus-14.0% and a RE24 of plus-1.3. Tampa Bay attempted to respond in the top of the sixth when Jose Siri launched a home run off James Kaprielian that added plus-22.3% in win probability for the Rays in the moment, and Siri led all batters on either side with a final WPA of plus-17.5% and RE24 of plus-2.2, making him Tampa Bay's most impactful offensive performer despite the loss.

On the pitching side, Oakland's Ken Waldichuk was the single most valuable contributor in the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus-34.5%, while James Kaprielian added plus-18.6%. Tampa Bay's early opportunities were repeatedly suppressed, with Isaac Paredes grounding into a double play in the third inning that cost the Rays minus-15.6% in win probability and a pop out in the first that registered minus-9.8%, sequences that in hindsight proved costly in a game ultimately decided by a single run. Jace Peterson also stood out for Oakland, finishing with a WPA of plus-15.5%.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalOAK win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 15.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jose Siri Home Run
Top 6th · off James Kaprielian
+22.3%
Shea Langeliers Double
Bot 5th · off Zach Eflin
+18.8%
Isaac Paredes Grounded Into DP
Top 3rd · off James Kaprielian
-15.6%
Christian Bethancourt Groundout
Top 2nd · off James Kaprielian
-11.0%
Isaac Paredes Pop Out
Top 1st · off James Kaprielian
-9.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Jose Siri+17.5%+2.2 RE24
Jace Peterson+15.5%+0.7 RE24
Shea Langeliers+14.0%+1.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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