Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the Philadelphia Phillies 9-8 on June 12, 2023, at Chase Field in a back-and-forth contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 67 percent ultimately prove correct, though the path to that outcome was anything but straightforward. The game featured extended lead changes and a series of high-leverage plate appearances that repeatedly redistributed control before Arizona finally secured the result.

The third inning was the first major pivot point, with Philadelphia briefly seizing momentum when J.T. Realmuto ripped a triple off Tommy Henry that shifted win probability by plus-21.3 percent in the Phillies' favor, part of a four-run frame that gave Philadelphia a temporary advantage. Arizona responded in the bottom half, with Pavin Smith's single off Matt Strahm adding plus-13.2 percent for the home side and helping trim the deficit. The Diamondbacks continued to claw back in the fourth, where Corbin Carroll's triple off Yunior Marte swung the needle plus-13.9 percent, followed by an Emmanuel Rivera single off the same pitcher for an additional plus-10.2 percent. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the sixth, when Evan Longoria connected on a home run off Andrew Vasquez, the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-25.1 percent, lifting Arizona into a position from which they would not relent.

By WPA, Realmuto was Philadelphia's standout with plus-38.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.9, though his contributions were ultimately insufficient. Carroll led Arizona's position players at plus-24.4 percent and plus-2.4 RE24, while Longoria posted plus-15.5 percent on the strength of his sixth-inning blast. On the mound, Andrew Chafin was Arizona's most impactful reliever at plus-15.2 percent, with Miguel Castro adding plus-6.3 percent and Drey Jameson contributing plus-4.6 percent as the bullpen preserved the one-run margin.