Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | 11 | 14 | 1 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles routed the Kansas City Royals 11-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 11, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate largely anticipated, with Baltimore holding an 84 percent pre-game home win probability that climbed to a certainty by the final out. The Orioles built their margin in clusters, scoring three runs in the first inning, three more in the third, and three additional in the seventh to pull comfortably away. Kansas City managed eight hits and committed no errors, but the damage was done early and the Royals never found consistent footing against Baltimore's pitching.
The game's most consequential individual moment came in the top of the third, when Salvador Perez connected on a home run off Kyle Gibson that shifted win probability by plus-17.4 percent in Kansas City's favor, representing the single largest swing of the night and briefly tightening a game that had already tilted toward Baltimore. That momentum was quickly absorbed, however, as Baltimore answered in the bottom of the third. A Josh Lester single off Mike Mayers added plus-9.6 percent to Baltimore's win probability, and a James McCann sacrifice fly contributed an additional plus-7.4 percent, erasing any foothold the Royals had momentarily gained. Drew Waters was unable to extend the Kansas City threat in the fourth, striking out into a double play off Gibson at a cost of minus-7.6 percent win probability for the visitors.
Among position players, Perez finished as the top WPA performer in the game at plus-16.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Aaron Hicks led Baltimore's offensive contributors at plus-12.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5. Josh Lester added plus-10.6 percent WPA for the Orioles. On the pitching side, Keegan Akin was the most effective arm by WPA at plus-3.3 percent, while Jackson Kowar finished at minus-1.8 percent for Kansas City. The DiamondIQ model leaned heavily toward Baltimore entering the game, and the Orioles' 14-hit performance validated that assessment thoroughly.