San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies walked off the San Diego Padres 5-4 on June 11, 2023, at Coors Field in a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the home side just a 46 percent chance of winning before first pitch, only to close at 100 percent after a stunning ninth-inning rally. San Diego had led heading into the bottom of the eighth and carried that edge into the ninth, but Colorado strung together three home runs across the final two innings to steal the win.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the eighth when Coco Montes connected on a solo home run off Luis Garcia, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 31.9 percent and began seriously eroding San Diego's cushion. The Padres answered in the top of the ninth, as Fernando Tatis Jr. drew a walk off Justin Lawrence that represented the single largest positive swing for San Diego on the night at plus 34.5 percent, and the model briefly swung back toward the visitors. That momentum evaporated almost immediately when Trent Grisham's bunt pop out in the same inning cost the Padres 18.8 percent in win probability, stranding a critical opportunity. From there, Ryan McMahon launched a home run off Tom Cosgrove worth plus 44.1 percent, and Nolan Jones delivered the walk-off blow against Brent Honeywell, a home run that added 45.9 percent to Colorado's win probability and ended the game.

Jones led all players by WPA at plus 50.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Tatis finished second despite being on the losing side at plus 43.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.5, a reflection of how thoroughly San Diego's offense was concentrated in his at-bats. McMahon added plus 36.5 percent WPA on the pitching side, Blake Snell was the standout for Colorado in his own right at plus 29.0 percent WPA, keeping the Rockies within striking distance long enough for the bullpen to implode and the lineup to deliver.