Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals silenced a Truist Park crowd that had entered the evening with reason for optimism, rolling past the Atlanta Braves 6-2 on June 11, 2023. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Atlanta holding a 73 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed entirely by the final out as Washington authored one decisive, game-altering inning to seize full control.

The Nationals were largely quiet through the first five frames, managing only a Keibert Ruiz single off Bryce Elder in the fourth inning — a sequence that carried a win-probability swing of plus 10.3 percent and hinted at a crack in the Atlanta starter's command. That crack became a full rupture in the top of the sixth. Jeimer Candelario led the inning with a home run off Elder, the single most impactful play of the game at plus 20.8 percent in win probability. Joey Meneses followed with a single off Elder at plus 10.1 percent, and Luis García Jr. added a double worth plus 8.5 percent. Bryce Elder was then replaced by Kirby Yates, who surrendered a home run to Dominic Smith at plus 15.6 percent, completing a five-run eruption that rendered the final three innings a formality.

Candelario finished as the game's most consequential performer, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 26.9 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Dominic Smith contributed plus 11.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1. On the mound, Trevor Williams led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 14.2 percent, supported by Carl Edwards Jr. at plus 7.7 percent and Kyle Finnegan at plus 1.2 percent. Washington's nine hits matched Atlanta's total on the night, but the Nationals concentrated their damage with a precision the Braves could not answer.