New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at PNC Park on June 11, 2023, in a game that was decided almost entirely in the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Pittsburgh a 60% win probability, and the game's decisive sequence arrived when Jeff McNeil gave the Mets an early lead with a home run off Mitch Keller in the top of the fourth, a swing worth +11.3% in win probability. The Pirates answered immediately in the bottom half, as Jack Suwinski hit a home run off Carlos Carrasco that shifted the win probability by +11.9%, giving Pittsburgh a 2-1 lead it would not relinquish. Those two swings in a single inning effectively set the game's outcome, as neither team scored again through nine innings.

The Mets mounted their most credible threat in the top of the ninth, where Tommy Pham delivered a double off David Bednar that moved win probability by +13.7%, representing the largest single-play swing of the game. The rally fell short, however, as Brett Baty and Mark Canha each flew out to Bednar, both outs costing the Mets 10.9% in win probability and ending New York's final push. The game finished with the DiamondIQ model's estimate at 100% for Pittsburgh.

Mitch Keller led all pitchers with a WPA of +21.2%, absorbing the McNeil home run but limiting the Mets to that single run across his outing. David Bednar followed at +15.2%, and Josh Walker contributed +10.9% in support of the Pittsburgh staff. On the offensive side, Pham led all batters at +8.9% WPA despite a negative RE24 of -0.2, while Bryan Reynolds posted +8.4% WPA and +0.5 RE24, and Suwinski added +6.4% WPA alongside a +0.5 RE24. Pittsburgh's final line of 2 runs on 8 hits against the Mets' 1 run on 3 hits reflected how thoroughly the Pirates controlled the game outside of that one McNeil swing.