Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks overcame a mid-game deficit to defeat the Detroit Tigers 7-5 at Comerica Park on June 11, 2023, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a pre-game 34 percent home win probability down to zero by the final out. Arizona managed nine hits without committing an error, while Detroit stranded opportunities despite collecting eleven hits and benefiting from an Arizona miscue-free afternoon that kept the deficit manageable into the late innings.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth inning, when Christian Walker laced a double off Jason Foley that swung win probability by 70.0 percentage points in Arizona's favor, a singular play that effectively ended Detroit's chances. Walker finished as the game's most impactful batter by a wide margin, contributing a cumulative 63.1 percent in WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2, making him the clear architect of the late rally. The D-backs had added a run in the eighth before that ninth-inning burst produced four runs, turning what had been a tenuous situation into a comfortable final margin. The Tigers had built their case on a four-run fourth inning, headlined by Zach McKinstry's home run off Zac Gallen, which added 17.4 percentage points of win probability, and Jake Marisnick's double in the same frame, worth 13.0 points.

Pavin Smith also contributed meaningfully for Arizona, finishing with a plus-1.9 RE24 and 14.7 percent WPA, while Marisnick led Detroit's offensive contributors at plus-16.8 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Detroit's bullpen trio of Joey Wentz, Will Vest, and Chasen Shreve each posted positive WPA figures, but Andrew Chafin's ninth-inning appearance proved costly, as Andy Ibáñez's triple off him added 13.1 percentage points for Detroit too late to matter. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Arizona's patient late-inning execution as the structural difference in a game that belonged to Detroit for much of the middle frames.