Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds erased any doubt early and rolled to an 8-4 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 10, 2023, building a five-run lead through three innings that the Cardinals never seriously threatened. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the home side at a 49 percent win probability, but that figure collapsed steadily as Cincinnati staked its claim in the first half of the game, finishing at zero percent by the final out.
The decisive damage came in the second inning, when Luke Maile delivered a double off Miles Mikolas that swung win probability by 12.0 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor, the single largest play of the game. A TJ Friedl groundout in the same frame added another 5.5 percentage points as the Reds pushed across three runs. Andrew Knizner's strikeout against Andrew Abbott in the bottom half, costing St. Louis 7.7 percentage points, kept the Cardinals from mounting any early answer. Matt McLain followed in the third with a triple off Mikolas worth 6.0 percentage points, extending the advantage to five runs. The Cardinals attempted to trim the deficit with two runs in the eighth, but Nolan Gorman's pop out against Lucas Sims, a 4.7-percentage-point swing against St. Louis, extinguished the rally.
Andrew Abbott was the game's most dominant individual performer, generating 21.6 percentage points of win probability added on the mound for Cincinnati. Maile finished as the top offensive contributor at plus-13.0 percentage points of WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.6. Dylan Carlson led St. Louis with a WPA of plus-7.2 and a RE24 of plus-2.7, while Spencer Steer added plus-6.4 percentage points of WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4 for the Reds. Lucas Sims and Buck Farmer each contributed in relief, finishing at plus-2.1 and plus-1.0 percentage points of WPA respectively, as Cincinnati completed a clean 10-hit, zero-error effort.