San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres held off the Colorado Rockies 3-2 at Coors Field on June 10, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win beginning at 45% before closing at 0%. The Padres struck first with a run in the top of the first, absorbed a Rockies equalizer in the bottom of the second, and remained knotted at one until San Diego broke the game open in the sixth inning. Fernando Tatis Jr. delivered the decisive blow in that sixth-inning rally, lacing a single off Jake Bird that shifted win probability by 18.5 percentage points in San Diego's favor, and the Padres ultimately pushed across two runs in the frame to take a 3-2 lead they would not relinquish.
Colorado threatened in the late innings but could not capitalize on its opportunities. In the bottom of the eighth, Randal Grichuk flew out against Nick Martinez, a sequence that swung win probability 23.3 points against the Rockies, and Mike Moustakas followed with another flyout off Martinez that cost Colorado an additional 13.7 points of win probability. Martinez was the game's most impactful pitcher, generating a combined WPA of plus-23.3, while Kyle Freeland posted a plus-19.6 WPA in a losing effort and Steven Wilson contributed plus-15.5 for San Diego. The Rockies' final hope came in the bottom of the ninth when Josh Hader struck out Elehuris Montero to end the game, a moment that swung 31.6 points of win probability toward San Diego and sealed the outcome.
Among the key individual contributors, Tatis Jr. finished as the game's second-highest WPA batter at plus-22.6 with a RE24 of plus-1.3, reflecting his central role in San Diego's go-ahead rally. Paradoxically, Montero led all batters with a plus-25.5 WPA despite posting a negative RE24 of minus-0.6, a product of the high-leverage strikeout situation converting into a save scenario for the Padres. Ezequiel Tovar was Colorado's most productive offensive contributor, finishing with a plus-12.6 WPA and a plus-0.6 RE24, but the Rockies' inability to produce in their best late-game chances ultimately proved the margin in a narrow San Diego road victory.