Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins erased a quiet eight innings of baseball with an explosive five-run ninth inning to defeat the Chicago White Sox 5-1 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 10, 2023. The game was effectively dormant through eight frames, with Miami's lone scoring threat yielding nothing and Andrew Vaughn's solo home run off Sandy Alcantara in the fourth inning standing as the only run before the Marlins detonated against Joe Kelly in the final frame. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Chicago entering the game with a 43 percent win probability, but by the final out that figure had collapsed to zero.

The ninth inning was where the game's entire narrative was written, and Jorge Soler was the central figure. His walk off Kelly swung win probability by 24.0 percent, the single largest play of the game, followed almost immediately by Bryan De La Cruz's fielder's choice that added another 22.7 percent. A Jesús Sánchez walk contributed 10.8 percent and a Garrett Cooper single added 10.6 percent, as Kelly was unable to escape the inning without the damage becoming catastrophic. Vaughn's fourth-inning home run, worth 11.4 percent in win probability, had given the White Sox their only moment of genuine leverage, but it proved fleeting.

Among individual performers, Soler finished as the game's top batter by a wide margin at plus-34.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.5, while De La Cruz contributed plus-13.4 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.2. On the pitching side, Michael Kopech led all pitchers at plus-26.1 percent WPA, keeping the Marlins at bay long enough to give Chicago a chance that Kelly ultimately could not protect. Sandy Alcantara finished at plus-15.4 percent WPA, and Reynaldo López added plus-14.8 percent WPA in supporting Miami's effort.